(Photo by Conflict & Development at Texas A&M via Flickr/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
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Since it split from Al-Qaeda in 2014, the Islamic State (IS) has been a formidable opponent for countries in the West. The organization has continuously carried out deadly attacks against people and governments across the Middle East as it continues to spread its ideology around the world.
The use of the term Islamic State (IS) refers to the self-proclaimed global caliphate with different provinces around the world. In contrast, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) refers to a specific province within the wider network that encompasses areas around Iraq and the eastern part of the Mediterranean.
Despite the widely proclaimed fall of the Islamic State in the Middle East, its allies and affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa continue to wreak havoc on Muslims and non-Muslims alike, as the majority of their victims continue to be fellow Muslims.
Unfortunately, the focus of the agencies responsible for fighting terrorism in the West has seemingly shifted, leaving people in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere vulnerable. However, this phenomenon is not limited to these agencies. The American public is reportedly increasingly concerned about domestic terrorist threats as opposed to foreign ones.
What is Dead May Never Die
In 2019, an operation conducted by American forces in Syria led to the death of ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Relentless attacks against ISIL strongholds and fighters by the U.S.-led global coalition and local forces in the Middle East followed Abu Bakr’s death.
While the defeat of ISIL did not hinge on the death of al-Baghdadi, it played a significant role in the fall of the organization, along with the sustained military campaign they endured. In Syria, the fight against the terrorist group was a combination of efforts by the local, international, and coalition forces who came together to push them out of the Northern and Eastern parts of the country.
March 23, 2019, is generally recognized as the day the terrorist group lost its final stretch of territory in Syria. Since then, the group has reportedly gone underground, using autonomous and sleeper cells to carry out regional attacks. While the U.S. and other allies have done well to militarily defeat ISIL and seize their territory, the organization continues to exist in different forms. One such avenue is through its affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa.
A Modern Day Franchising System
Before the defeat of ISIL, the Islamic State already had a foothold on the African continent, particularly in the sub-Saharan region. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) split from Boko Haram in 2015 after a dispute within the organization. Additionally, in 2022, the Islamic State recognized the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) as an autonomous province separate from ISWAP, years after it pledged its allegiance in 2015.
As indicated by the name, ISWAP operates in West Africa, where it carries out kidnappings, killings, and other crimes in pursuit of its goal of establishing a government based on extremist interpretations of the Quran. The ISSP has its stronghold in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, where it carries out attacks against the local population and their respective governments. Other relevant IS affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa include IS-Democratic Republic of Congo and IS-Mozambique, former IS-Central African Province (ISCAP) members aptly named after their respective areas of influence.
A common element in these groups is the existence of leadership disputes and disagreements over pledging allegiance to ISIL. For Boko Haram and ISWAP, such disagreements led to the split between both groups in 2016. Additionally, members of the ISSP formed their group in May 2015 after internal disagreements about pledging loyalty to the Islamic State in their previous group.
Finally, the U.S. has recently sanctioned alleged ISIL operatives in South Africa, accusing them of “using robberies and kidnappings for ransom to fund ISIL activities” from Uganda down to South Africa. While there is no official Islamic State province in South Africa, South African cells allegedly play a prominent role in revenue generation for ISCAP and other provinces in sub-Saharan Africa.
The Numbers on Islamist Terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa
According to the Global Terrorism Index, a comprehensive study of the impacts of terrorism across the world, the epicenter of terrorism has reportedly shifted from the Middle East to sub-Saharan Africa.
While sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia combined had more deaths from terrorism than any other region, sub-Saharan Africa had almost 3,000 and 5,000 more deaths than the other two. Percentage-wise, while these three regions accounted for 94 percent of deaths from terrorism in 2023, sub-Saharan Africa alone accounted for about 59 percent of them.
Furthermore, despite a worldwide 25% drop in deaths as a result of terrorism in 2023, sub-Saharan Africa overtook the Middle East as the region with the most terrorism-related fatalities in the world. While North America and sub-Saharan Africa are the only two regions with an increase in deaths and violence, the reduced focus on the extremist Islamist threat in North America could be explained by the difference in the forms of terrorism currently being carried out in both regions.
The Rationale for a Change in Focus
Recently, terrorism in North America has been largely unaffiliated with specific terrorist groups. Instead, a growing number of terrorist attacks have been by individuals with ties to certain ideologies (with a domestic flavor) instead of ties to a particular extremist/terrorist group. Examples of this include the deadly 2020 attack on a massage parlor in Toronto that resulted from the spread of incel ideology.
These facts explain the media’s shift in focus from groups like ISIL (and their affiliates) to more decentralized lone-wolf attacks. The unaffiliated attacks are occurring more frequently in North America and, as such, have been the subject of increased focus. In addition, the military defeat of ISIL and its relative distance from North America means that it has fallen from the list of priorities.
Nonetheless, to fully defeat these terrorist groups and keep the world safe, policymakers and politicians must continue to monitor these groups and analyze how to fight these groups, especially beyond the battlefield. Efforts to monitor and counter the activities of groups like the Islamic State must target easily influenced groups like the youth and the oppressed. These efforts must also promote more accurate interpretations of religious texts like the Quran that are often intentionally misread for extremist purposes.
Readiness as the Way Forward
While it is understandable that the focus of policymakers in North America is on the rapidly expanding lone-wolf form of terrorism, politicians and policymakers in North America and sub-Saharan Africa must continue to keep their eye on the metaphorical ball to prevent a large-scale revival.
Indeed, experts and analysts are already warning of a resurgence in attacks from the affiliates of IS in sub-Saharan Africa. In January of 2024 alone, there were 54 extremist attacks in Nigeria and Cameroon credited to ISWAP. In Central Africa, for example, instability, in addition to the existence of illegal Small Arms and Light Weapons in the region, creates fertile ground for further chaos and ISCAP growth in the region.
Furthermore, despite the perceived distance between sub-Saharan Africa and North America, Islamic State ideology is easily exported through social media. Countries like Canada and the U.S. are already seeing the effects of this. A notable example is the number of people that are arrested for their involvement with foreign terrorist organizations and for sharing terrorist-associated content.
The Role of Government in Fighting Back
Intelligence and defense agencies in Western countries must stay ready and remain vigilant against the spread of online propaganda in their countries. It can involve supporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa in their effort against this particular form of terrorism. In addition to protecting the people of sub-Saharan Africa, this form of support aids Western countries in protecting their citizens.
Countries like the U.S. have mostly provided aerial and tactical support, leaving sub-Saharan countries to lead the fight against this form of terrorism. Although military operations cannot defeat terrorism alone, Western nations must continue to support local armies in their fight against ISIL to counter their resurgence. The primarily local nature of the fight against Islamist terrorism is also critical as countries like the U.S. have often been rightly accused of intervening in foreign nations and cannot continue to do so.
Finally, as organizations like ISWAP and ISCAP allegedly provide better forms of leadership than the governments responsible for the respective territories, the different governments must step up their efforts for recognition as the legitimate powers in charge. More concretely, this looks like providing more resilient structures for their citizens to depend on, whether to ensure better economic prospects or provide much-needed safety and security.
Edited by Gustavo Villela
