The Road Home: Refugee Reintegration in Syria

(Photo by European Parliament via Flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In just two months, Ahmed al-Sharaa has risen from a rebel leader with a $10 million bounty on his head to the President of Syria. In November, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist militant group led by Sharaa, launched a military offensive against Syrian government forces. 

Advancing south from their stronghold in Idlib province, the rebels encountered little resistance. They swiftly seized control of western Syria, entered the capital of Damascus, and forced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country. On December 8, 2024, Prime Minister Jalali announced the fall of the Assad regime and the transfer of power to a transitional government led by al-Sharaa.

The stunning collapse of the Assad regime—the end of a brutal 53-year reign—could signal the end of the Syrian Civil War. But, it marks just the beginning of a critical new phase in Syrian history. As millions of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) prepare to return home, the transitional government will lead Syria through the challenges of reconstruction and refugee reintegration.

Millions of Syrians Set to Return Home

The nearly fourteen-year conflict has displaced more than half of Syria’s prewar population of  23 million. Civilians have fled violence, ethnic and religious persecution, mandatory military conscription, and forced marriages, seeking refuge in other countries and safer regions inside Syria. 

In total, over 6.2 million Syrians left Syria, while an additional 7.2 million are internally displaced. Refugees reside in more than 130 countries, but the vast majority remain in the neighbouring countries of Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt. Refugee returns have remained relatively low in recent years, averaging just below 50,000 annually since 2016.

The events of the past two months have dramatically altered this trend. With the prospect of greater safety and renewed hope of reuniting with family members, recovering lost property, and rebuilding their country, refugees are returning home at a staggering pace. Some 270,000 have returned since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) projects that up to 1.5 million additional refugees and as many as 2 million internally displaced people will return home in 2025.

The scale of this migration is an extraordinary challenge for a nation pulling itself from ruin.

Rebuilding a Nation in Ruin

Syrian refugees are returning to a very different political landscape. In January, the victorious HTS leadership announced the abolition of all existing government institutions, including the 2012 constitution, the parliament, and the military. In its stead, President al-Sharaa and HTS-aligned politicians from the northwestern province of Idlib have taken on the role of caretaker government. 

Recently, the transitional government has hosted a National Dialogue, where around 600 delegates met to discuss the political transition and begin preparing for a new constitution. Al-Sharaa estimates that the transition process could take up to four years. While Syrian politics are rapidly changing, the threats to civilians remain much the same.

A Fragile Security Situation

Although the Syrian military dissolved and hundreds of armed groups laid down their weapons, Syria remains extremely unstable. Fighting continues in northern Syria between the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), both of which hold significant territory. Israel has seized a buffer zone along its border with Syria and is launching airstrikes against Syrian government positions. Druze militia groups, including the recently formed Suwayda Military Council, also retain territory and influence in southern Syria. 

Economic Devastation

The war has decimated the Syrian economy. According to the World Bank, the Syrian economy has shrunk by up to 84 per cent. The war has damaged and destroyed critical infrastructure, including roads, bridges, dams, pipelines, and irrigation systems. 

Once the backbone of Syria’s economy, oil production and agriculture have collapsed, replaced by illegal drug trafficking. Inflation is among the highest in the world, and employment levels are low, particularly among young people. In 2024, more than two-thirds of Syrians could not meet their basic needs.

Housing Shortages

Years of conflict and a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2023 destroyed millions of homes. According to a survey, 81 per cent of home-owning refugees reported that their homes are either fully destroyed or uninhabitable. Those whose houses remain may return to find their homes looted or confiscated.

Limited Access to Basic Services

Access to water, food, and shelter, let alone electricity, education, healthcare, and public transportation, is extremely limited throughout the country. In 2024, at least 16.7 million Syrians required immediate humanitarian aid. The situation is particularly dire in northern Syria, where the most sustained fighting has taken place. While the UN and other humanitarian organizations continue to deliver aid, shrinking budgets and a lack of government support have left millions without the necessities of human life.

Pathways to Successful Refugee Reintegration

The transitional government will need to adopt a comprehensive and dynamic approach to successfully resettle refugees and IDPs. They will need to re-establish peace and security, protect minority populations, revive the economy, and promote cooperation between governments, international institutions, and humanitarian organizations.

Negotiating Peace

Establishing and maintaining peace is critical to civilian protection, economic recovery, and the delivery of essential humanitarian aid. Although hundreds of armed factions have joined the new united national army, the transitional government must continue negotiating with key holdouts like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Druze militias. 

Talks continue between the transitional government and the SDF. However, the two sides remain divided over the level of political independence that Kurdish regions will retain under the new government. Kurdish leaders did not participate in the National Dialogue. President al-Sharaa has also held discussions with Druze militia leaders in southern Syria. Although Druze leaders have expressed interest in cooperation, they remain committed to retaining a degree of autonomy from the national military.

Protecting Women and Minority Communities

The protection of women minority communities is a crucial component of the peace negotiations. Syria is an ethnically and religiously diverse country. At around 70 per cent, the majority of Syria’s population is Sunni Muslim but Shia Muslims, Druze, Alawites—the religious sect of the Assad family—and various Christian denominations all represent significant minorities. 

The largest ethnic minority in Syria is the Kurdish people. Concentrated in the northeast of the country, the Kurds have experienced a long and complex history of persecution and alienation. The alignment of armed groups along ethnic and religious lines is a key factor in the persistence of the conflict in Syria. 

The inclusivity of the transition is key to reestablishing peace and bolstering the government’s international legitimacy. President al-Sharra and HTS’s past ties to al-Qaeda and continued presence on international terrorist lists have raised serious concerns over the inclusivity of the new regime. Since taking power, al-Sharaa has sought to assure critics by expressing support for women’s and minority rights, but skepticism remains.

Reviving Trade and Foreign Investment

Economic revival is crucial for refugee reintegration. Economic development will provide desperately needed income for civilians and generate essential tax revenue to fund government services. Stable employment, especially for young people, may also help curb violence by reducing the appeal of joining armed groups. To rebuild the economy, the transitional government must secure investment and resume international trade.

Syria is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. States and organizations like the US and European Union, have imposed strict bans on the import of vital resources, technology, and funding. Sanctions make acquiring the goods and services needed to rebuild difficult. In 2024, the value of goods flowing in and out of Syria was less than one-fifth of pre-war levels.

Since taking power, Al-Sharaa has increased diplomatic engagements with western countries and deep-pocketed Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE. The World Bank and IMF, which have not had meaningful relations with the Syrian government in over a decade, could also play an important role in financing Syria’s recovery.

To revive the national economy, the transitional government must continue advocating for the removal of sanctions and engaging with potential investors and international institutions. 

Multilateral Cooperation

With dozens of governments and humanitarian organizations involved and the highly dynamic needs of refugees and IDPs, cooperation and coordination are essential. The transitional government will not only need to end the politicization and obstruction of humanitarian aid but also actively promote cooperation. Neighbouring countries, regional governments, and humanitarian groups will all play an important role in maintaining order and efficiently allocating limited resources.

Grassroots organizations can also play a vital role in addressing the refugee crisis amid continued political fragmentation. Previously restricted under the Assad regime, community organizations are crucial to filling gaps in government and humanitarian assistance and ensuring that resource allocation prioritizes those most in need. 

Hope in the Face of Adversity

The Syrian Civil War—one of the deadliest conflicts of the twenty-first century—has forced millions of civilians to flee for safety. Filled with renewed hope of rebuilding their lives after the fall of the Assad regime, thousands are returning by the day. Returning refugees and IDPs face many of the same challenges they fled – violence and persecution, poverty, and homelessness – but they also return at a rare moment of national revival.  

The transitional government has the opportunity to bring this human tragedy to an end. Success depends on committing to peace through negotiation, re-engaging with the international community, fostering cooperation, and ensuring that the new country includes all Syrians. 

The task ahead is immense, but there is good reason for hope.

Edited by Ashley Renz