(Photo by Raimond Spekking via Justice and Peace Commission/CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED)
Listen to this article:
After decades of conflict, competing territorial claims between Armenia and Azerbaijan seem all but decided. An Azerbaijani military operation from September 24 until October 3, 2023 forced over 100,000 ethnic Armenians living in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan to evacuate their homes and flee into Armenia. Russian peacekeeping forces then negotiated a ceasefire and peace deal between the two nations. The Azerbaijani and Armenian governments agreed that the former would regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh and four villages within Armenian territory, a significant step toward ‘ending’ a conflict that has gone on since at least 1991.
Even though outright armed conflict may have ended, lingering tensions surrounding the conflict persist. In June 2024, Armenians began to protest their government’s decision to cede, or surrender, this territory. Growing border concerns provoked disaffected Armenians to take to the streets for several weeks and call for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s resignation. Although the movement died down without achieving its primary aim, questions regarding what will happen to the over 100,000 displaced Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh remain.
With tensions surrounding these new borders, it is clear that more resolution is needed for this conflict to truly end. With both countries close to inking a more permanent peace deal, it is important to examine why people are protesting and why this issue at large deserves greater attention.
Historical Context
Before 1918, both Armenia and Azerbaijan were territories ruled by the Russian Empire. Following World War I, both nations declared independence in 1918 and initiated disputes over who would control Nagorno-Karabakh. Following a two-year war and the massacre of ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis in the region, the region was officially made a part of Azerbaijan in 1920, directly after the Soviet Union invaded and incorporated the two nations into its newly formed borders.
Ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijani-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh continued to cite discrimination and abuse throughout the decades of Soviet rule. At the same time, the Azerbaijani minority in the area also claimed to be discriminated against by the majority of Armenians, furthering this divide. With massacres carried out against one another throughout the 1980s as the Soviet Union began to collapse, Azerbaijanis and Armenians harboured resentment that continued following their nations’ independence.
Both countries once again received their independence in 1991; however, the Nagorno-Karabakh region held its own referendum on independence. The region voted overwhelmingly to become independent, declaring itself the Republic of Artsakh in 1991. Azerbaijan heavily boycotted this referendum as illegitimate and an act of interference by Armenia, escalating tensions between the two Caucasus nations that led to armed confrontation in 1992.
In what is referred to as the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, military conflict displaced hundreds of thousands of Armenian and Azerbaijani civilians and killed tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides. In May of 1994, the warring nations agreed upon a ceasefire, though no comprehensive treaty was signed. As a result, Artsakh remained independent (though internationally unrecognized) and Armenia continued to occupy several Azerbaijani territories surrounding it.
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War & Current Phase of Conflict
Armenia continued to occupy Azerbaijani territory surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh for over three decades after it signed a ceasefire in 1994. Scattered conflict thus continued to escalate in the region, most notably flaring up in four days of clashes in 2016.
Decades of unresolved conflict evolved into another full-scale war in September 2020. This Second Nagorno-Karabakh War saw Azerbaijan retake a significant portion of the territory occupied by Armenia before a ceasefire in November. In September 2023, Azerbaijan violated the ceasefire and captured the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region, which had until then been the nominally independent Republic of Artsakh. Azerbaijan remains in control of the region today.
Protests against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s apparent failure to protect Armenian territory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War have flared up intermittently every year since 2020. Since winning reelection in 2021, Pashinyan has strengthened Armenia’s relationship with the EU and the US and adopted a stance calling for peace in the region, framing the ceding of territory to Azerbaijan as a necessary step to resolving the conflict.
Pursuing this policy, Armenia agreed to cede four abandoned villages to Azerbaijan in April 2024 to further peace negotiations. Renewed protests in Armenia continued until June but failed to stop peace talks with Azerbaijan, which remain ongoing.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, & International Law – Responses & Implications
Though territory has changed hands and fighting has ceased, one of the reasons why this conflict remains relevant is because of its international legal implications. Legal proceedings surrounding the conflict are still underway; on September 16, 2021, Armenia put forward a case against Azerbaijan to the International Court of Justice alleging ethnic and racial discrimination. Azerbaijan followed suit just over a week later on September 23. Both countries have objected to the Court’s jurisdiction to hear each others’ cases, which has delayed a final judgment. Proceedings remain underway at the time of this writing.
Armenia’s case against Azerbaijan alleges “systemic discrimination, torture, mass killings and other abuses” of ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan during and after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Azerbaijan’s case raises similar concerns regarding the incitement of hatred against ethnic Azerbaijanis living under Armenian administration ever since the First Nagorno-Karabakh War.
As international lawyer Javil Rahmnani argues, these high-profile cases could set important legal precedents for those seeking to address cases of ethnic discrimination in the future.
In addition, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court (ICC) directly following the 2023 protests. This move is consequential for two reasons. The most obvious is that the prospect of criminal responsibility for those involved in the war may alter any potential negotiated resolution. Luis Moreno Ocampo, a former prosecutor of the ICC, has publicly stated that he considers the deaths of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh as ethnic cleansing, even referring to it as, “a second Armenian genocide.” Whether the countries would agree to a peace deal that involves handing over military officials accused of violating international law remains to be seen.
Secondly, this development points to a larger reorientation of relations in the region. By joining the ICC, Armenia is now obligated to arrest any leader with an outstanding ICC arrest warrant that sets foot on their soil. With Vladimir Putin’s warrant for alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine, this move by Armenia signals a pivot away from its former ties with Russia. Moscow referred to this development and Prime Minister Pashinyan’s meeting with US advisors in May of 2024 as “unfriendly,” meaning the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan could take on greater importance as a ‘proxy’ issue between the United States and Russia.
Beyond Bureaucracy – Centering the Human Dimension of Nagorno-Karabakh
While the international relations and power politics associated with this conflict are important, it is essential not to lose sight of the suffering people in the region are experiencing. While international courts decide on a verdict for the thousands killed and displaced in the 2020 war, Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive has negatively impacted tens of thousands more Armenians.
Following a visit to Nagorno-Karabakh in October of 2023, Dunja Mijatović, Commissioner for Human Rights at the Council of Europe, emphasized the responsibility of both states to ensure the right of return for expelled migrants. As of the time of writing, Armenia is struggling to settle and support the over 100,000 displaced individuals mainly clustered around its capital city of Yerevan. To achieve a just resolution to the conflict, the voices of these displaced persons and other victims from both sides must take a central role in shaping the legal proceedings, media narratives, and geopolitical fallout from the war.
‘Resolving’ the Frozen Conflict in Azerbaijan & Armenia
Nagorno-Karabakh goes beyond just a ‘border conflict’ — the region has a complex history inherited from the Russian and Soviet eras. It is closely bound to the national identities of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Addressing the impacts of occupation, denial of sovereignty, war crimes and other consequences stemming from decades of conflict requires a serious examination of history and a strong focus on mitigating humanitarian consequences in the present.
Edited by Anthony Hablak
