(Photo by Commonwealth Secretariat via Flickr/CC BY-NC 2.0)
In 2024, 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa planned national elections. Of these, only 12 actually took place. Unfortunately, authorities in countries like Mali and South Sudan either postponed or flat-out refused to host elections as promised, raising questions about the role and future of democracy in said countries.
To compare, in 2023, there were seven planned national elections in sub-Saharan Africa. All seven took place at some point during the year. However, there were widespread irregularities in the majority of elections that took place in 2023.
Of the 12 elections that took place in 2024, eight of them were reportedly viewed as legitimate by internal and external reviewers. Said reviewers praised countries like Ghana and Somaliland for their relatively safe and sound electoral processes. Meanwhile, other reviewers also criticized countries like Mauritius and Comoros for the scandals and violence that surrounded their elections.
A glance at some of these countries’ elections within the past year will reveal a few positives and negatives that can serve as lessons for any country looking to strengthen its democracy.
What Builds a Strong Democracy?
Ghana’s general election took place in early December 2024. With a voter turnout of 60.9%, the election saw former President John Mahama beat former Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia. Crucially, Bawumia admitted to losing before the official announcement of the results. Following Ghana’s previous election in 2020, this peaceful handover continued a trend of democratic transition within the country.
Botswana also experienced a peaceful democratic transition in 2024, with Mokgeetsi Masisi handing power over to Duma Boko. After almost six decades in power, Masisi’s political party lost its leadership role in the country’s National Assembly for the first time in Botswana’s history. Most importantly, Masisi publicly acknowledged defeat a few days after the election. He stated that it was his duty to ensure that the country’s first change of government since independence in 1966 was seamless.
As per an expert within the region, the peaceful transition of power in Botswana and Ghana made these historic elections possible. Furthermore, these countries have grown democracy in their respective regions through the relative independence of electoral bodies, a strong culture of election acceptance, and individuals willing to continue that culture.
How Does Low Voter Turnout Impact the Growth of Democracy?
South Africa held elections in late May, with four parties coming together to form a National Unity Government (NUG) in support of the African National Congress’ candidacy. Despite a rich democratic culture post-apartheid, this set of elections saw a record low turnout, with only 58% of the country’s registered voters casting their vote. In 2019 and 2014, the turnout percentage was 65% and 73%, respectively. While the country’s elections were widely seen as credible by internal and external reviewers, the low turnout reflects an increasing lack of confidence in the country’s democratic institutions.
A reduced level of turnout was also evident in Ghana’s latest election in late 2024. The 61% turnout in the last national elections was significantly lower than the 2020 elections, where there was a turnout of 79%. Furthermore, there was increased electoral violence across the country compared to 2020, highlighting a possible decline in trust in the electoral process despite the peaceful transition of power. Declining voter turnout in Ghana and South Africa suggests a downturn in citizens’ confidence in the countries’ electoral processes and the countries as a whole.
What Electoral Violence Tells us about Democratic Trust
Suppression of voices was, unfortunately, a theme across the region in 2024. In Mozambique, after the country’s election commission confirmed the victory of the Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO), there were widespread protests against electoral irregularities and political killings of members of the opposing party. In response to these protests, the country’s internet services were interrupted, and several people were killed/injured by police.
In Comoros, after protests erupted against the results of the election, the government imposed a curfew and internet shutdown across the country. There was low turnout during the election – only 16% of all registered voters actually cast their vote. The presence of electoral violence and low voter turnout reveals a lack of trust in the country’s electoral process and its democratic institutions. It is also reflected in the country’s outlook on the elections as reported by various media outlets. Following a pattern of fraudulent elections within the country, the opposition party reportedly decided to ignore the elections, resulting in a lack of alternatives for many voters.
Unfortunately, a lack of trust in democracy can create a vicious cycle where citizens of these countries do not cast their votes due to a lack of trust in the electoral system. This lack of trust leads to inadequate representation, which only fosters more distrust. Comoros once again presents an example of this. A boycott of the federal elections in 2020 by opposition parties due to a lack of confidence in the country’s democratic institutions led to the ruling party winning 20 out of 24 seats in the Parliament and no doubt informed the lack of voter turnout in this election.
How Governments can Cultivate Trust while Improving the Democratic Process
Although far from perfect, the 2024 sub-Saharan elections can teach us how to strengthen democratic institutions. While one can compliment Ghana’s Electoral Commission (EC) for organizing elections that result in peaceful transitions of power, questions remain about the institution’s perceived lack of independence. While the heads of the EC are typically non-partisan, the alleged appointments of NPP loyalists to the organization have seemingly eroded public trust in the institution itself.
While this has not fully destroyed the public’s trust in the EC, major actors within the country must take steps to repair this crack. Electoral officers should be free of loyalty to any political party and should put the people above all. The independence of a nation’s electoral commission is critical to conducting fair elections that the people trust.
Additionally, countries across the region must continue to make definitive efforts to end electoral violence. Indeed, the level of a population’s trust can affect electoral violence, i.e., the chances of electoral violence decrease if the population is confident in an election and assured that it would reflect their will. This is reflected in the Mozambique elections, as showcased earlier, where concerns about electioneering reduced turnout and sparked violent protests nationwide.
Efforts to restore or build trust in democratic institutions can also take the form of electronic voting, fully independent electoral commissions, and active voter education campaigns on the importance of having safe and fair elections. These actions will help build democratic institutions across sub-Saharan Africa and ensure the progress of democracy within the region.
Finally, a downturn in economic fortune can erode trust in a government and the process that resulted in their election. Newly elected governments across sub-Saharan Africa must seek to improve the economic outlook of their respective countries. They might even choose to work in tandem to improve their regional economies and restore faith in their systems.
Democracy as a Safeguard
Without these active efforts to repair and build trust, democracy within the region runs the risk of regressing. With military regimes on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa, democratic countries within the region cannot run the risk of making strongman rule seem attractive.
Despite the terrible effects of military and “democratic” strongman regimes on human rights, a lack of faith in democracy can often make these dictators seem attractive. With the lessons learned from the past year, leaders across sub-Saharan Africa must ensure that their democratic institutions earn the trust of the citizens in the utility of their votes.
Edited by Anthony Hablak
