Japan’s Gradual Military Buildup Worries China

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In November 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was questioned in the National Diet (parliament) about a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Beijing has long claimed Taiwan as its territory, repeatedly threatening to use military force to “restore” the island to Chinese control. In response, Takaichi said action from China could trigger a military response from Tokyo. This statement was unusually bold for the Japanese government, which is constitutionally prohibited from using military force and in practice only maintains a self-defence force. 

The Chinese government had a strong response to Takaichi’s remarks. Beijing criticized Japan’s “interference in China’s internal affairs,” since Beijing considers Taiwan a part of its territory. After Takaichi refused to retract her words, Beijing imposed a series of economic retaliatory measures on Japan. The number of mainland Chinese tourists to Japan dropped a whopping 61% year-on-year in January 2026 after the Chinese government issued warnings against travel to Japan. Over a dozen flight routes between the two countries were cancelled. Seafood imports from Japan were also suspended, among other trade restrictions. 

Tensions between the two countries have been amplified by violence, both threatened and real.  In response to Takaichi’s remarks in the Japanese parliament, a Chinese diplomat issued death threats online against Takaichi. Over the last couple of years, there have been a series of attacks on Japanese citizens in China, as well as a break-in by a Japanese soldier at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo.

Japan’s Rightward Shift on Defence

More broadly, Japan’s political changes are contributing to tensions between the two nations. Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan were not out of the blue; Takaichi, even before her premiership, was very “hawkish” in her foreign policy stance, meaning she favoured a more aggressive approach towards China. As Prime Minister, she and her governing coalition are now pushing Japan further to the right in terms of international policy.

In the aftermath of World War II, Japan disbanded its armed forces and formally renounced military force in its new constitution. Since then, Japan has maintained a self-defence force, which has only been deployed for disaster response over its 70 years of existence. Japanese conservatives have been aiming to revise the constitution, expanding the role and powers of the Japanese Self-Defence Forces to be closer to a full army. Takaichi also supports loosening Japan’s “Three Non-Nuclear Principles” – namely, not producing, storing, or owning nuclear weapons in Japan – which would allow American nuclear weapons to be stored on Japanese soil.

For example, Takaichi’s Taiwan promise is only possible under a 2015 amendment to Japanese law made under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The law allows the Japanese Self-Defence Forces to respond not just to an attack on Japan itself, but also attacks on Japan’s allies. After Takaichi’s coalition won a supermajority in the February 2026 parliamentary elections, there are now enough votes in parliament to revise the constitution to expand the Japanese military even further. 

Additionally, there has been an increase in Japanese support for their country’s military buildup. A 2025 Japanese government poll found that 45% of respondents wanted to strengthen the Japanese Self-Defence Forces – the highest ever recorded in the poll’s three-decade history. Respondents reported being most concerned about China and North Korea’s military power. 

Military Buildup in the Region

Both China and Japan have been building up their militaries in recent years. Japan boosted its defence spending to become the third-highest spender worldwide, behind only the United States (U.S.) and China. Tokyo now permits exports of lethal arms to allies as well, reversing a long-time ban. Meanwhile, China’s efforts to build up its military are well-known. Beijing is increasing the number of nuclear warheads, warships, and other military hardware that it owns – by 2014, China had already surpassed the U.S. to become the largest navy in the world.

Japan has cited China’s growing military strength as a key reason behind its own military expansion. On the other hand, Beijing attributes its military expansion to building deterrence, denying any plans to attack its neighbours. Both countries have had an uneasy relationship since Japan’s invasion of China during World War II, committing war crimes and causing over 20 million deaths. While Japanese politicians have apologized for this history, a growing movement of revisionism within Japan tries to downplay these atrocities. Beijing regularly uses this history in its arguments against what it calls “Japanese remilitarization.”

Japan’s close alliance with the U.S. also continues to concern Beijing. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has maintained a military presence in Japan, currently having around 120 bases and over 50,000 troops in the country. Beijing has long criticized American involvement in the area, including joint military drills between the U.S. and Japan and the stationing of American missiles on Japanese soil. 

What Does This Mean Globally?

While Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan sparked the latest spat between Japan and China, they are merely a symptom of a bigger race in military buildup between the two countries. High tensions are likely to intensify the military expansion, as Japan’s people and government grow wary of China’s threat to national security. Japan’s defence minister, Yoshida Shinji, described “the security environment surrounding [Japan]” as “the most severe and complex” since World War II.

What’s more, the Takaichi government’s blunt and hawkish stance means that Japan will likely continue expanding the role of its military, something that Beijing strongly opposes. In this case, the tensions between the two countries will run high for the foreseeable future. 

More broadly, tensions between Japan and China are a symptom of the increasingly polarized geopolitical landscape. Across East Asia, other flashpoints for conflict risk escalating tensions. For example, earlier in July 2026, the Chinese and Philippine navies clashed in the South China Sea over disputed territory. Nearly every country bordering the South China Sea has overlapping claims on the waters and the islands within, complicating efforts to resolve the situation. North Korea, a close Chinese and Russian ally, also continues to test missiles and nuclear weapons periodically, continuing a long belligerent streak. 

With instability brewing across the globe, experts have described “a new cold war” brewing between countries aligned with China and Russia, versus countries aligned with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states in North America and Europe. Japan and South Korea, another close U.S. ally in the region, are pitched on the opposite side of this conflict from China, adding yet another barrier to normalizing relations. 

Edited by Alexas Vieria