(Photo by Anass Sedrati via Wikimedia Commons/CC BY-SA 4.0)
The year 1991 brought not only the dissolution of the Soviet Union but also the collapse of a bipolar world order. However, this dominance of the U.S. was short-lived, as powers such as China and India emerged. The world gradually returned to a multipolar order. Yet, one thing remains: the competitiveness of great powers in the international system.
After entering the World Trade Organization in 2001, China enjoyed consistent economic growth and decreasing poverty levels. While American consumers benefited from low prices in China and corporations gained access to Chinese markets, the U.S. was unhappy. Former U.S. president Bill Clinton, in bidding for U.S.-China integration, believed in Chinese political reforms, yet economic growth has only led to increased state power.
As Chinese corporate competitiveness continues to grow, the American economy has received mixed results. At the intersection of trade and security, economic benefits, and national interests, rising Sino-U.S. tensions have an effect both globally and regionally.
Analysts have often overlooked the agency and capability of middle powers in this discussion. Great powers, such as the U.S. and China, can be defined as states with economic power and military capacity. These two elements allow for their dominating political positions on the global stage.
Middle powers, on the other hand, do not possess such economic and military dominance. They rely on diplomacy and active engagement in international forums to influence foreign affairs. It is their promotion of cooperative decision-making that prevents violent escalations.
Why does Vietnam Matter in the U.S.-China Trade War?
- Vietnam–China
Within this framework, Vietnam stands out as one of the most vulnerable middle powers amid U.S.-China tensions. As a neighbouring country of China, the two share a long history of not only warfare but also cooperation. China’s claims over the South China Sea have intensified regional maritime security and worsened Vietnam-China relations over the disputed reef.
However, both Vietnam and China share a similar political system with communist parties as the leaders. The level of economic interdependence between the two is also high. With the U.S. placing trade barriers on China, many multinational corporations have adopted the China Plus One strategy, diversifying their production and supply chain investments to countries other than China. Vietnam emerges as a natural alternative, becoming a key export destination for China and deepening its economic integration.
- Vietnam–U.S.
Similarly, the U.S.-Vietnam relationship reflects a paradox of trade and security. After the U.S.-Vietnam normalization of diplomatic relations in 1995, twenty years after the end of the U.S.-Vietnam War, both countries have developed a strong trade partnership. The U.S. is now Vietnam’s “fifth-largest import market” with cooperation and investments in critical industries.
Washington and Hanoi also share security cooperation “for a future of a free and open Indo-Pacific Region.” Due to its high strategic value, Vietnam is one of the U.S.’s key partners in maintaining American influence in the region’s geopolitics.
However, the Trump administration has expressed its opposition to this trade surplus. Hanoi’s increasing exports from China, with the end products being re-exported under Vietnamese labels, also fuel U.S. President Donald Trump’s distaste for trade deficits. Along with his political and economic use of tariffs, this could negatively impact the U.S.-Vietnam strategic partnership.
- Strategic positioning
Amid great-power competition, Vietnam has to adopt strategic calculations in order to maintain both national security and economic growth. It has navigated this complex intersection of trade and security through strategic neutrality, or the so-called “bamboo diplomacy.”
Bamboo is a familiar symbol in Vietnamese culture. This plant grows in branching clusters at an incredible speed. Because of its strong yet delicate features, bamboo represents flexibility, resilience, and independence. Thus, proactive international engagements, strategic alliances, and active involvement in international forums are the core components of bamboo diplomacy.
This strategy is developed based on Vietnam’s decade-long experience dealing with great powers. It serves as a navigational tool amid complexity and uncertainty. This article explores both the strengths and challenges of bamboo diplomacy amid renewed Sino-Soviet trade tensions. Vietnam’s effective use of bamboo diplomacy might provide a different approach when it comes to great-power rivalry in a globalization era.
What are the Challenges of Vietnam’s Bamboo Diplomacy?
The core challenge for Vietnam’s foreign policy lies in its ability to balance economic and security partnerships during intensifying competition. Three elements constitute Vietnam’s relationships with the two great powers: historical links, economic interdependence, and national security.
- Historical Backgrounds: Rivals or Allies?
Vietnam and the U.S. were once rivals in a prolonged conflict. Following the American defeat, Washington placed a trade embargo and cut diplomatic ties with Vietnam. As a result, the newly unified Vietnam became reliant on the Soviet Union and China, adopting their models of development and state-building. The normalization of the U.S.-Vietnam relationship came in 1995 when Vietnam started its political and economic reforms. Bilateral trade in goods between the two countries has soared ever since the start of the century, leading to increasing economic integration.
The Vietnam-China relationship takes a different route. In 1950, China was the first country to establish diplomatic relations with the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, now the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. The two communist-led countries have maintained close party-to-party ties. However, there have been growing tensions regarding Chinese claims over the South China Sea. China has expanded its exclusive economic zone claims and bolstered its naval presence. Maritime competition in the South China Sea challenges regional peace and stability. These tensions have strained relations between Hanoi and Beijing.
Historically, resilience and adaptability are no strangers to Vietnam’s diplomacy. The two international agreements in the two wars against France and the U.S. are evidence. These diplomatic legacies brought favorable conditions to the ultimate self-determination of Vietnam. Furthermore, Vietnam’s fight for independence has inspired the liberation movement across developing nations. While peace is fresh for the Vietnamese people, they have proven their leading role in a cooperative approach to international peace.
- The Paradox of Trade and Security
In an era of globalization, the complexity of trade and security has brought significant challenges to Vietnam’s neutral stance. In the year 2023, the two state leaders, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, showed clear competition over their strategic ally with state visits. Both offered economic opportunities and discussed security cooperation. Xi Jinping’s visit to Vietnam happened after the country deepened its ties with the U.S. and Japan.
Over the years, Vietnam has received reinforcements for its coastal forces and other security cooperation from the U.S. and Japan as a counter-balancing act toward China. Vietnam remains one of the most assertive countries in the South China Sea issue. Yet, despite the anti-China public backlash, China and Vietnam continue to share an ideological background and inevitable economic interdependence.
The U.S., especially during the first and now second Trump administration, is unhappy with this alliance. It considers Vietnam to be taking advantage of the U.S. The more trade and security overlap, the more pressure on Hanoi to take a stand.
- Vulnerability into Opportunity
Hanoi, however, has transformed this delicate position into a strategic opportunity. It has deepened its ties with the U.S., upgrading the relation to its highest level—the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership along with China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Australia, France, Malaysia, and New Zealand. At the same time, the current Vietnamese government continues to maintain bilateral relations with Beijing and strengthen personal ties among top leaders.
These actions have shown the core of bamboo diplomacy. Vietnam sustains its balance among great powers by diversifying its strategic partnerships and fostering multifaceted interdependence. Furthermore, as the U.S. threatens Vietnam with tariffs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is ready to engage in discussions. In 2025, Vietnam will host the historic UN convention signing on cybercrime, underscoring its proactive and influential global engagement. Vietnam’s combination of balancing activities—through bamboo diplomacy—can serve as an example for other middle powers.
What Does This Mean for Great-Power Rivalry?
Navigating complexities lies at the core of Hanoi’s bamboo diplomacy, whether it is trade, security, or a combination of both. Since the end of the Cold War, Vietnam has employed a flexible, balancing strategy to navigate its complex relationship with China.
Following the 1995 normalization, Vietnam has expanded its external relations. It has relied on the liberal world order for economic growth while avoiding military entanglements. Through expanded multilateral relations and reduced reliance on China for security, Vietnam effectively counters pressure and deters Chinese aggression.
Hanoi’s bamboo diplomacy offers valuable insights for rethinking great-power rivalry. Heavily influenced by the Cold War dynamics, great-power rivalry rigidly distinguishes between friends and enemies. Through military and economic might, superpowers divide the world into opposing blocs. Such a binary approach is no longer applicable.
Today, globalization fosters interdependence, from economic ties to social, cultural, and political exchange. Bamboo diplomacy illustrates that amid rising competition, neither isolation nor dependence offers a viable solution. It encourages both middle powers and major players to adopt a nuanced, cooperative approach across multiple fronts.
Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy highlights a critical lesson: in an interconnected world, peace is built on resilience, adaptability, cooperation, and strategic engagement rather than confrontation.
Edited by Lubaba Mahmud
