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In 1969, Nobel Prize-winning chemist Glenn Seaborg predicted the widespread adoption of nuclear energy. Appearing before a Congressional Committee in Washington D.C., Seaborg advocated for nuclear power’s potential to lift billions of “energy-starved individuals into the mainstream of the twentieth century.”
Over a half-century later, Seaborg’s prediction has fallen short. The use of nuclear energy did steadily rise in the latter half of the twentieth century. But, beset by safety concerns and financial challenges, nuclear energy production has stagnated since 2000. In 2023, nuclear energy accounted for just one-tenth of the world’s electricity and less than 4 percent of total energy consumption.
Today, nuclear energy predictions abound once again. Fueled by continued population growth, economic development, and increasing reliance on electronic technologies, electricity demand is expected to increase rapidly over the coming decades. Meanwhile, climate change and the resulting movement towards low- and no-emissions energy sources are transforming how the world looks at energy production. New technologies and investment dollars are creating renewed optimism for the future of the nuclear energy industry.
Back to Basics
Understanding nuclear energy requires a bit of basic (and vastly oversimplified) science.
Atoms are made up of protons, neutrons, and electrons. Together, protons and neutrons form the nucleus of the atom. Electrons rotate around the nucleus. Different combinations of these components create different elements.
The nuclei of atoms can be combined to create a single atom. During the 1920s, scientists discovered that when combined, some atoms fit together more efficiently than others. These combined atoms weigh less than they did as two separate atoms. This missing weight (or mass deficit) is released as energy when the atoms are combined. Capturing that energy produces nuclear energy.
The most efficiently packaged element is iron. That means combining atoms from lighter elements, like hydrogen, through a process called fusion can produce energy. Fusion is a highly effective energy production method, but scientifically, it’s extremely challenging. Fusion reactions are hard to sustain because they require high levels of heat and pressure.
Scientists have therefore opted for a different process using the same principle. Splitting the atoms of heavier elements, like uranium, through a process called fission can also produce energy. Uranium is the most common element for nuclear power generation because it’s relatively easy to split. Though less efficient, fission is a much easier process.
The basic mechanism behind nuclear reactors is relatively simple. Technicians produce energy by initiating fission reactions. That process releases energy as heat, which is channelled into large bodies of water. As the water heats, it produces steam, turning large turbines that create electricity. That electricity is then fed into the grid and becomes accessible at the flick of a switch.
Why (Not) Pursue Nuclear Energy?
A wide variety of factors influence a country’s desire or ability to take advantage of this scientific marvel. The scale of investment and high level of technological expertise required mean that nuclear energy doesn’t necessarily make sense everywhere.
Economics
Resources play a foundational role in energy preferences. Low-cost alternatives eliminate the need to develop a nuclear industry. For example, Canadian provinces source their electricity based on their unique situations. In British Columbia, hydroelectricity from abundant rivers provides nearly 90% of electricity, whereas fossil fuels provide a similar proportion in oil-rich Alberta. Absent similar resource wealth, Ontario relies on a more diverse energy mix that includes nuclear power.
Financing is a major challenge for nuclear adoption. The scale and complexity of projects require huge levels of investment and create the potential for delays and cost overruns. These risks often deter private investment, requiring governments to play a major role in financing and supporting a nuclear industry.
Politics
Some countries have proved willing to adopt nuclear power despite available alternatives. Countries like the UAE have used nuclear energy to increase their energy security by diversifying their energy supply away from fossil fuels. China and India have also employed nuclear energy to reduce their reliance on imports while satisfying their rapidly expanding energy needs.
Nuclear energy has also become a diplomatic tool. High barriers to entry allow nuclear energy leaders to gatekeep the industry by providing selective financial and technical support to other countries. A strong nuclear industry gives countries like China, India, and the US influence over nuclear energy hopefuls.
Investment in nuclear projects can also strengthen national defence. The civilian nuclear industry sustains the personnel and expertise necessary for the development of nuclear weapons technology.
Environment
Though controversial, nuclear energy is also an environmentally friendly energy source. It produces relatively few greenhouse gas emissions or air pollution. Nuclear energy also provides a more stable and reliable flow of energy than other low-emissions energy sources like wind and solar.
The main environmental challenge of nuclear energy is waste. Nuclear waste includes everything from contaminated equipment to used nuclear fuel (often called spent fuel). The most radioactive parts of nuclear fuel can remain dangerous for up to a few hundred years.
Progress in the recycling of nuclear waste has substantially limited this issue. When recycled, the total waste from one person’s annual electricity usage is about the size of a brick, only 5 grams of which is dangerously radioactive. Prior to disposal, technicians typically store nuclear waste for at least five years. Deep geological disposal, which involves encasing waste in a combination of copper, steel, cement, and/or clay and then buried deep underground, is the most widely favoured solution to nuclear waste.
Nuclear Energy Players
All told, just over 30 countries have active nuclear energy industries. The US, China, France, Russia, South Korea, and Canada are the world’s leading nuclear energy producers. However, as a percentage of total electricity consumption, the list of nuclear power players is decidedly more European.
While Europe has historically been an industry leader, this trend is beginning to change. Over the coming decades, with China and Japan leading the way, Asia is expected to be at the centre of nuclear growth. While the number of nuclear power producers has steadily grown, it remains concentrated in a relatively small number of hands. A major reason for this is the complex psychology that surrounds nuclear energy.
Nuclear Boogeymen
In 2011, a 9.1 magnitude earthquake hit off the coast of Japan, causing a tsunami to wash across a 2,000-kilometer stretch of Japan’s Pacific coast. Together, the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami took the lives of nearly 20,000 people and caused some $220 billion in damage.
Despite the widespread effects of the disaster, most people remember Tohoku for its impact on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Flooding caused three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to melt down, releasing radiation into the surrounding air and sea. The Fukushima disaster killed six people and exposed six others to dangerous doses of radiation.
The Fukushima meltdown resulted in widespread backlash. Countries like Japan, Switzerland, Germany and Italy closed down existing nuclear reactors and scrapped plans for new projects, significantly reducing nuclear power production.
It’s not entirely clear why nuclear disaster weighs so heavily on people’s minds. Fukushima, along with Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986 are the largest nuclear energy disasters in human history. While tragic, the impacts of these disasters represent only a tiny fraction of millions of deaths and environmental destruction caused annually by other energy sources like fossil fuels and biomass.
It could be a lack of familiarity. Nuclear isn’t as visible or interwoven in daily life as solar panels, windmills, or combustion engines; it’s a complex, microscopic process that takes place deep inside towering reactors. Maybe it’s the result of people’s inability to rationally analyze risk? The inevitable association with nuclear weapons? A stroke of genius by lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry? Or maybe just pop culture influenced by shows like The Simpsons?
Whatever the reasons, most people don’t support the development of nuclear energy. A 2023 survey found that just 47% of Canadians support nuclear as a source of energy in Canada. Those against nuclear energy reported waste disposal, nuclear accidents, and environmental impact as their greatest concerns.
The good news for proponents of nuclear energy is that familiarity breeds favourability. According to a 2015 survey, nearly 90 percent of people living near American nuclear power plants viewed nuclear power favourably, compared to just 68 percent of the general public. If investment projections are correct, people are about to get a lot more familiar with nuclear energy.
The Nuclear Renaissance
Over the past 50 years, global energy consumption has more than doubled. As the world’s population rises, standards of living improve, and technology plays a greater role in the global economy, demand for energy will continue to rise over the coming years. Fueled by the electrification of industrial machinery, electric vehicles, and data centres, electricity consumption will rise even faster.
Meanwhile, climate change is upending existing energy sources. The impacts of climate change—extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and higher average temperatures—are already being felt worldwide. According to climate scientists, these effects will only worsen. There is some debate over the degree of human influence on climate change. Still, the billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) released each year from burning fossil fuels is indisputably a contributing factor.
These two trends are in direct conflict. To avoid disaster, humanity must find a way to produce more energy while transitioning away from its cheapest and most reliable energy source.
Nuclear energy has emerged as a leading solution, capable of providing clean, reliable, and affordable electricity. In 2023, more than 20 countries came together at COP28, the UN’s annual climate action conference, to recognize this reality. They pledged to triple nuclear energy production by 2050.
So far, this pledge appears to be more than rhetoric. Around the world, countries are refurbishing and extending existing reactors and breaking ground on new projects. In 2023, nuclear energy investment reached its highest level in history. Morgan Stanley projects that by 2050, the US, China and the EU will invest over a trillion dollars in nuclear energy combined.
As investment dollars begin to flow, perhaps Glenn Seaborg’s prediction will be realized after all.
Edited by Chelsea Bean
