(Photo by UN Women Asia And the Pacific via Flickr/BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Four years after the Taliban took over, fighting in Afghanistan continues. In October 2025, skirmishes between Afghanistan and its southern neighbour, Pakistan, killed dozens and wounded over 100 people. While the two countries are currently under a ceasefire, attempts to broker peace have failed, with talks breaking down in November.
These attacks are a symptom of increased tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan’s accusations of Afghanistan supporting extremist groups aiming to overthrow the Pakistani government further strained relations between the two. Said groups, such as the Pakistan Taliban, have killed thousands in Pakistan this year alone. Afghanistan denies supporting these groups.
Could the Conflict Escalate Further?
With negotiations so far failing, experts have raised the alarm that the conflict could escalate further. Despite Afghanistan’s denial, terrorist groups like the Pakistan Taliban do operate on and carry out attacks on Pakistan from Afghan soil. The Afghan government has, in negotiations with its Pakistani counterpart, agreed not to support terrorist groups operating in Pakistan, though Pakistan’s government has already accused Afghanistan of breaking this promise. Afghanistan has also refused other demands from Pakistan, such as handing over members of the Pakistan Taliban to Pakistan for trial.
Since the ceasefire began, both sides have already violated it. As both states have said they will continue to observe the ceasefire only as long as the other side doesn’t attack first, the continued attacks are worrying for renewed fighting. Moreover, experts have noted that Afghanistan’s government does not directly control terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, and the groups will likely continue their attacks regardless of the opinions of either the Afghan or Pakistani governments.
Pakistan and Iran, and How Afghan Civilians are Caught in Between
Besides Pakistan, Afghanistan also has poor relations with its western neighbour, Iran. The two countries have been in conflict over water rights, and the conflict turned deadly in 2023. While the two nations are not actively fighting, tensions remain high. Fighting on the Iranian-Afghan border allegedly broke out again in 2024, though international media were unable to independently verify these reports.
Tensions between Afghanistan and its neighbours have led to a rise in anti-Afghan sentiment in Pakistan and Iran. Unfortunately, this has led to very real consequences for people of Afghan descent living within these two countries. In 2023, when tensions between the countries rose, both Iran and Pakistan started mass deportations of “undocumented migrants.”
In reality, however, these campaigns have targeted ethnic Afghans. Increased tensions between Afghanistan and its neighbours were directly correlated with the start of deportations in 2023, rendering Afghans as pawns in an international fight. In many cases, refugees had lived in Pakistan or Iran for decades without being disturbed until 2023.
Deportations, Displacement, and Increasing Discrimination
These campaigns continue to this day, with over two million people returned or forcibly returned to Afghanistan in the first eight months of 2025 alone. As both Iran and Pakistan set deadlines for migrants to leave, many leave on their own accord rather than waiting until they are forcibly deported. Deportations are often forced or coerced: authorities are systematically driving people of Afghan descent who have lived in Pakistan or Iran for decades out of their homes.
In fact, the two million deported so far this year comprise just some of the millions of Afghans who have fled to neighbouring countries. These migrations occurred during the continued unrest that the country has faced since 1979. The United Nations (U.N.) estimates that over 10 million Afghans remain displaced inside and outside the country.
Further, Iran has invoked thinly-veiled discrimination against people of Afghan descent, painting them as Israeli spies amidst a brief war between Iran and Israel. These discriminatory messages have gained traction among Iranians. Afghans reported being accused by ordinary Iranians of spying for Israel, and anti-Afghan posts spiking on Iranian social media. Pakistan has, meanwhile, begun deporting legally documented refugees before the deadline given to refugees to voluntarily leave the country, a move that the U.N. has condemned.
No Rights, No Food, No Aid: A Dangerous Situation for Returning Afghans
Refugees returning to Afghanistan have to rebuild their lives in a theocratic state where Islam is enforced as the mandatory religion, male guardians must accompany women in public, and girls are prohibited from attending school beyond sixth grade. What’s more, many of the refugees have spent decades in either Pakistan or Iran, putting down roots and starting families there. Many do not speak either Dari or Pashto, the official languages of Afghanistan, further imposing barriers on daily life.
Additionally, Afghanistan is currently experiencing a resource shortage due to a severe drought that has affected food production. The United Nations has marked Afghanistan as being of “very high concern” for acute food insecurity, with more than one in three Afghans currently experiencing food insecurity. Adding millions of people will only worsen the food shortage.
What’s more, the U.N. Development Programme has described Afghanistan’s economy as having “basically collapsed” under international sanctions, contracting 27% between 2021 and 2024. Unemployment also doubled during this time. Combined with natural disasters that have destroyed infrastructure and killed thousands, Afghanistan’s existing systems are barely able to support the existing population—let alone millions of repatriated Afghans in a short period of time.
The millions of refugees entering Afghanistan in such a short amount of time are overwhelming local and international groups, in a country already highly dependent on international aid. This aid was cut back severely due to international sanctions following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, which plunged Afghanistan into its current humanitarian crisis. Further American aid cuts earlier this year, which reduced the scope of aid international organizations can provide, have made this situation worse.
Can Anything Be Done?
With talks breaking down between Pakistan and Afghanistan, achieving a lasting peace seems unlikely in the short term. Tensions between Iran and Afghanistan also remain high, with rhetoric from Iran continuing to attack Afghans remaining in the country.
Nonetheless, both countries should stop forced deportations immediately for both altruistic and pragmatic reasons. Returning millions of Afghans within a year to a country experiencing food shortages, depressed economic and job opportunities, and significant human rights abuses only serves to inflame the humanitarian crisis already unfolding in Afghanistan. Moreover, forced deportations may further destabilize Afghanistan, creating conditions that the U.N. has noted are favourable for extremist groups such as the Pakistan Taliban to grow support. In this way, deportations may backfire on the Pakistani and Iranian governments.
Edited by Khushi Mehta
