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On June 30, 2024, the first round of legislative elections in France occurred, with results turning in favour of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party named National Rally (33.2%). The left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) came in second (28%), while President Macron’s centrist party Ensemble was left in third place (21%).
The close results in the first round of elections, paired with a significant increase in voter turnout, led to a dramatic turnaround for second-round election results on July 7th. The National Rally lost its top place, failing to win a majority in the National Assembly and opening the first place for the leftist NFP party. The NFP comprises the Greens, Socialists, Communists and France Unbowed. They won 188 seats, placing Macron’s alliance second with 161 seats and the National Rally last with 142.
The surprising result was a reflection of several tactical alliances between the left and centrist wings. However, no party has yet to win a majority in the National Assembly after the second round of voting.
How Do French Elections Work?
The recent elections in France were for the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament. There are 577 deputies in the National Assembly, all representing an individual constituency. Thus, a majority would require 289 seats in the House.
Elections occur in a two-round system. If no candidate can win a majority of seats during the first round, the top two candidates, plus anyone who received at least 12.5% of registered voters, will go to the second round. In the second round, whoever gets the most votes wins. Most of the time, only two candidates go to the second round. The current case of three candidates in the second round is thus extremely unusual.
Pre-Election Context
To better understand these surprising results, it is important to understand France’s current political context and Macron’s reasoning for calling an election. Many citizens were dissatisfied with Macron’s failures, leading to numerous protests surrounding his policies.
Examples of frustration-inducing actions include his pension reform policies that increased the retirement age from 62 to 64. Additionally, police brutality increased during Macron’s presidency, and his avoidance of consultation with his party’s coalition for important policy matters was not appreciated by fellow partisans.
Macron’s purportedly elitist and unrelatable character has further wounded his public image. It contributed to a skeptical mindset toward the president and his party.
Adding fire to these discontents is the surge in far-right populism in France. It can be seen in Marine Le Pen’s National Rally reforms and her attempts to “de-demonize” her party from the most controversial policies made by her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, as the previous leader of the National Rally. Moreover, she opted to shift the party’s strategy, softening its image and aiming towards social and economic matters, downplaying extremist policies and focusing on resonating with the average citizen, including in her messaging matters of purchasing power, healthcare and job security. All of this combined allowed Le Pen to increase the surge in support for the extreme right. However, Le Pen’s populist attempts to focus on national identity and framing immigration as a ‘crisis’ led to considerable frustration among French citizens.
Macron’s belief that people only vote for the National Rally as a form of protest encouraged him to use the second-round election to clarify that the right-wing did not have that much support.
The results of the second-round election provided Macron with his clarification, but not the one he wanted to hear. Millions of people used this opportunity to express their disappointment with his government, which led to Macron losing seats and destabilizing France.
Election Results
Although the NFP party received the most votes of the three blocs, no party received a majority of seats. The lack of a majority in the National Assembly has left France in a gridlock, also known as a “hung parliament.” The three parties represent how polarized French society is.
Macron’s disappointing government led to the death of the centrist party as an option for voting. His controversial presidency has left voters between the extreme left-wing group (NFP) and extreme right (National Rally). High polarization and anxiety from left and right-wing voters alike led to a 67% voter turnout— one of the highest in French history.
In the first round of voting, the National Rally won more votes than any party has ever received in the first round of a legislative or presidential election. With such a result favouring the National Rally, it became crucial for the other parties (NFP and Renaissance) to create a tactical alliance to cast away the far right from power. As the far-left leader Jean-Luc Mèlenchon said: “[We] wrested a result that everyone said was impossible in a wonderful leap of civic spirit … The people have avoided the worst.”
The strategic alliance proved successful in the second round, with Marine Le Pen’s party failing to win a majority. The NFP came out in first place with 188 seats, the Renaissance party secured 161, while the National Rally stayed with 142 seats in the National Assembly. Nonetheless, no parties reached a majority.
Problematic Election Results
Was it a wise choice to opt in tactical voting – choosing to support a party or candidate you wouldn’t typically back- in order to prevent the National rally to rise? The reality is that such a deed can be considered a relief for many portions of the French population that don’t condone the controversial policies of the National Rally. However, a snap election and its resultant lack of a majority in the National Assembly have set the country into a political “limbo,” with further turbulence ahead.
One of Macron’s objectives in calling the snap election was to obtain “clarification” that people do not want the National Rally in power but vote for such a party as a protest vote. His suspicion that people did not want the National Rally in power was correct, but at what cost to his party? The National Rally now has 88 more MPs than before, and Macron’s party lost almost 100 seats.
Furthermore, the president will have to create a majority coalition. Such a majority attempt will lead to multiple parties working together with different political beliefs and policy goals. Not only do these parties (e.g., Renaissance, NFP, Green, Communists, Socialists) differ politically, but there is widespread rivalry and disagreement between them. If these tensions lead to the coalition failing, it will be in the hands of Macron, and the National Rally will find itself as the only opposition option in the presidential elections.
With such starkly different political groups attempting to form a government together, this level of instability has not been seen in France for decades. According to Charles Bremner, a contributor from The Times, coalitions often lead to stationary governments that do not make significant reforms or policies. Instead, they simply keep the country running.
Such stagnation can have hugely negative effects, including fiscal deficits, a decrease in the country’s competitiveness, and internal social unrest. A weak France will also impact the rest of Europe, where foreign affairs may be cast aside to protect and preserve domestic disparities. The national debt will likely rise without reforms, and political deadlock will almost become unavoidable.
What’s Next?
What remains to be seen is who France’s next prime minister will be. According to convention, Macron should call for the leader of the political party with the most seats to take the job— this would be the NFP. However, constitutionally speaking, Macron is not obligated to ask the left-wing group to form a government.
Macron could also form a coalition to work with the moderate left within the NFP. He could even appoint a government of technocrats with no political affiliation solely to keep the country running. Whichever coalition forms, it will find itself in troublesome waters to pass reforms, needing to rely on other parties’ support to push through any legislation.
Adding to France’s uncertain future is the presidential election in 2027, in which the actions of the chosen party will directly dictate which direction the French constituents will lean towards. There is a valid possibility that the far right will come strong and return as president, persuading voters that they are the only party that would be up to the challenge of repairing the mistakes made by Macron and the coalition.
Instability at France’s door
In a speech delivered at the prestigious Sorbonne University in Paris, Macron warned: “Europe is mortal, it can die. It only depends on our choices.” The decision to hold a new election exemplifies how making risky choices can have tremendous negative consequences on a nation. France is currently in a highly unstable political situation with a lack of majority in the National Assembly and high polarization between parties.
Implementing and changing policies will further pose a great challenge for the next government. Instability is reaching the doors of France, where maintaining its economic stability and position as one of the powerful giants of Europe seems risky. It is now up to Macron to preserve order amid unstable circumstances.
Edited by Qiu Guan
